Syria’s wars: the certain losers and likely winners

FOR ALL the confusion about Syria’s civil war, there’s no doubt about the big loser – the Syrian people. But nearly every regional power that has intervened to advance its own interests has also paid a heavy price, as has the European Union, a not-so-innocent bystander. For now, the most likely winners are the former Cold War antagonists, the United States and Russia. Their success may ultimately cost the Middle East dearly, writes World Review Expert Dr. Samir Nassif. Three wars are currently raging in the Middle East – in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. The list of countries directly or indirectly involved in the fighting is impressive: Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United States, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and other member countries of the Arab League and the European Union. The cost has also been impressive. In Syria alone, the civil war has killed more than 270,000 people; out of a population of 20 million, nearly 5 million have emigrated and another 7 million have been displaced. The country’s cities are in ruins and its economy shattered; reconstruction costs are estimated at a minimum of $35 billion. Elsewhere, the fighting has sprung from a broader Sunni-Shia conflict that pits Iran, the leading Shia power, against a broad Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia. Taking advantage of the disruptions caused by U.S.-led intervention in Iraq and the toppling of Sunni-led regimes during the Arab Spring, Iran has extended its influence westward to the Mediterranean and southward to the Gulf of Aden. The sharp end of the Iranian wedge is in Syria. In retrospect, it is clear that U.S. President Barack Obama’s decision in August 2013 not to retaliate against Syrian government forces for using chemical weapons gave President Bashar al-Assad the opening he needed to survive. Mr. Obama’s backing away from his own “red line” became less mysterious when it was revealed that Washington was conducting secret talks with Tehran on its nuclear program. Since late September, Russia has been running the show in Syria, including giving orders to the Syrian army. The 4,000 airstrikes conducted by Russian aviation have not been aimed at Islamic State, or Daesh as it is known in Arabic, but at “cleaning out” the territory between Damascus and Aleppo in preparation for a future Alawite state. While Saudi Arabia is not likely at this stage to risk a direct conflict, it fully realizes that Tehran’s intervention to help overthrow Sunni governments across the region is an existential threat that could one day reach Riyadh itself. One consequence of this Iranian penetration has been a revival of Arabism from the Atlantic to the Persian Gulf. Even Iraq is torn between its historical allegiance to both the Arab world and the Shia community. This reaction makes the Shia-Sunni conflict by far the most dangerous and unpredictable in its consequences. The main antagonists – Iran and Saudi Arabia – will find it difficult to disengage. Syria, Iraq and Yemen will remain unstable; proxy conflicts will continue; and a potential Alawite state could find itself in a near-permanent state of war with its larger Sunni neighbors. Through adroit manipulation of its local alliances, the U.S. has slowly reasserted its leadership in the region by using a strategy of procrastination. While it can be debated whether this technique is calculated or not, it has brought undeniable success. Much has been made of the conflicting interests of the U.S.’s many allies – including Turkey, the Kurds, the Saudi coalition, the Iraqi government and various Sunni militias. What is less appreciated is the flexibility this offers Washington. The U.S. has many local partners and clients who must pay heed to what it says, even if they do not always agree or comply. For a more in-depth look at this subject with scenarios looking to future outcomes, go to our sister site: Geopolitical Information Service. Sign in for 3 Free Reports or Subscribe.

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