Yemen air strikes highlight Saudis’ tough new foreign policy

SAUDI Arabia's intervention in Yemen underlines the determination of the Saudi leadership to advance the kingdom’s security interests by military means if need be, writes World Review expert Professor Dr Udo Steinbach. That signals a new, more muscular foreign policy. The Arab alliance led by Saudi Arabia has been carrying out air strikes in Yemen since the end of March 2015. Saudi Arabia has not intervened in such a high profile manner in the domestic politics of a neighbouring state since the kingdom was founded by Abd al-Aziz ibn Saud (1880–1953) in 1932. The first Saudi state was founded in the mid-18th century. It was based on a combination of an extremely conservative interpretation of Islam by the theologian Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab with the political interests of the Saud family clan at the heart of the Arabian Peninsula. The radical Wahhabis were seen as religious outsiders by the Sunni mainstream and Shiites through into the 20th century. The Wahhabi fighters of the Saudi emirate have again become a threat to their Sunni and Shiite neighbours on the edge of the peninsula. Petroleum, discovered in Saudi Arabia in the 1930s, underpinned the country’s economic development and foreign relations following World War Two, and it is still at the heart of relations with the US. Washington guaranteed Saudi Arabia’s security, while Riyadh was a reliable supplier of oil to America and its allies. The US and Saudi Arabia were driven by similar security policy considerations until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990. Riyadh and Washington saw their interests threatened by the pan-Arabic nationalism of Gamal Abdel Nasser in Egypt and Saddam Hussein in Iraq, as well as the expansion of Soviet influence in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. The cooperation between the two countries to combat the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s was the culmination of that interaction. Cracks have appeared in the Saudi-US alliance since the terrorist attacks on America on September 11, 2001. The fact that 15 of the 19 terrorists of 9/11 were Saudi fuelled fears in the US that influential circles in Saudi Arabia are still exporting a militant, Wahhabi, form of Islam, while the leadership in Riyadh worries that Saudi Arabia’s close political ties with the US make the kingdom a target for attacks by radical Islamist organisations. The cooling of relations between Saudi Arabia and the US has intensified under President Barack Obama because of opposing views on the position of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Middle East. Historically, the religious opposition between Sunni and Shia has shaped the attitudes adopted by Iran and Saudi Arabia to each other. In the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), Saudi Arabia, like the US, backed the Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. Former US Pesident George W. Bush included Iran in the ‘axis of evil’ in 2002. The fall of Saddam Hussein, who saw himself as spearheading Arab nationalism against Iran, altered power relations in the Persian Gulf to Iran’s long-term benefit in 2003. Arab Shiites came to power in Baghdad, putting Iran in the position to influence Iraqi politics. At the same time, Iran set about establishing a political axis extending to Syria, where, under the rule of the al-Assad family, the Alawite religious sect, which has its roots in Shiite Islam, is in power. The Saudi leadership is convinced that Iran is on a quest to become a regional superpower, and sees the mobilisation of Shiites in the region as a key part of that strategy. Saudi Arabia reaped success in Yemen in autumn 2011 when President Ali Abdullah Saleh was ousted after decades of dictatorial rule. That, however, created a political vacuum in Sanaa, giving the Shiite Houthis in the north of Yemen the chance to regain control in the capital, which had been ruled by the Shiite Zaidis until the 1962 revolution. Saudi Arabia believes its Shiite rival in Iran lies behind the advance of the Houthis. Riyadh feels abandoned by Washington in its conflict with Iran, and is mistrustful of the US. President Obama’s persistence and willingness to compromise in the nuclear negotiations with Iran have led Saudi Arabia to suspect that he is seeking rapprochement with Iran to the detriment of the long-standing relations with the kingdom. Against the backdrop of the historic conflict between the Wahhabi state and the Shiite superpower, the Saudi government fears it will lose influence in the Middle East. It is determined to take military steps on its own initiative in Yemen to counter what it perceives as Iran’s increased influence. For a more in-depth look at this subject with scenarios looking to future outcomes, go to our sister site: Geopolitical Information Service. Sign in for 3 Free Reports or Subscribe.

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