Lebanon’s fragile balance holds amid political paralysis

THIS SUMMER, the streets in many of Lebanon’s cities were not only scorching hot and humid, but also stank to high heaven. Rubbish collections stopped on July 17, when Beirut’s main landfill was closed, and the government has since been unable to decide on another disposal site. The paralysis is symptomatic of Lebanon’s political system, torn between two opposing factions and their foreign backers, writes World Review expert Professor Dr Amatzia Baram. Fortunately, the response of ordinary people to the rubbish crisis was also typical, and says a lot about today’s Lebanon. Street protests were leavened by humour, as young Beirutis piled up refuse in front of the home of Environment Minister Mohammed Machnouk. While marches on August 22-23 were marred by violence from both police and protesters, they were not sectarian-based and reflected a broad sense of civil society. If, as some sources claim, Hezbollah was behind the ugliness during the demonstrations, it covered its tracks carefully. Most Lebanese today, of all persuasions, oppose sectarian violence. Lebanon suffers from problems more acute than waste. The country is flooded by 1.2 million refugees from Syria, with more crossing the border every day. This means that as much as 30 per cent of the Lebanon’s population consists of newly arrived refugees. The cities have witnessed occasional car bombings or fire fights between militant groups, not to mention a protracted struggle between the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and Sunni Syrian Islamic extremists in the country’s north-eastern region. Since the country ended its 15-year civil war in 1990, little attention has been paid to investment in infrastructure. Electricity supply is erratic, while the water system has collapsed in many parts of the country. At the political level, after postponing elections twice, parliament is serving illegally; the national unity government is unable to make decisions unless it reaches a consensus, which rarely happens; and the country’s presidency has been vacant since May 25, 2014. While the paralysis has cost Lebanon international aid and grants, life for most people is almost normal, and the economy is not in the nose-dive that many had predicted. Security-wise, so far at least, Lebanon has managed to escape the fate of Syria and Iraq. While there is some religious-based violence, Lebanon is not being sucked back into a bloody civil war. The paralysis has occurred because the country is torn between two opposing coalitions, each of which is dependent almost completely on foreign powers that are at daggers drawn. The March 14 Alliance, led by Lebanon’s former prime minister (2009-2011) Saad Hariri, consists mainly of Sunnis and just under half of the country’s Christians. They are allied with Saudi Arabia and opposed to Hezbollah, Iran and the Syrian Baath regime of President Bashar al-Assad. The other coalition, led by Hezbollah, is called the March 8 Alliance. As one might guess, they are close allies of Tehran and Assad, and opposed to Saudi Arabia. The 128-seat parliament is partitioned equally between Muslims and Christians according to the 1989 Taif Agreement, with the Druze regarded as part of the Muslim community. However, with both the Muslims and the Christians split between the two political camps, the Druze are keen on keeping an independent status. While Lebanon’s constitution calls for parliament to serve for four years, the most recent elections took place in 2009. Legislators voted in May 2013 to extend their terms by 17 months, then decided in November 2014 to tack on another three years to June 2017. This is plainly unconstitutional, but – however reluctantly – the Lebanese public seems to have resigned itself to the situation. The same voters elected parliament in the first place, and now no one sees a way out of the deadlock. Their thinking seems to be that an unconstitutional legislature is better than chaos and a Syrian-style civil war. For a more in-depth look at this subject with scenarios looking to future outcomes, go to our sister site: Geopolitical Information Service. Sign in for 3 Free Reports or Subscribe.

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