Saudi Arabia reconsiders foreign policy as US guarantee fades

THE UPHEAVALS witnessed in the Arab world since early 2011 have forced the leadership of Saudi Arabia to rethink its position in the region. For the first time since World War II, Riyadh cannot fall back on the strong alliance with the United States to guarantee its security. Further complicating the kingdom’s situation, relations with its neighbours are often difficult and ridden with resentment, writes World Review expert Professor Dr Udo Steinbach. The proclamation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932 by Abd al-Aziz Ibn Saud (1880-1953), following decades of his clan’s conquests on the Arabian Peninsula, concluded a process of consolidation that lasted two centuries. The new political entity, based on a militant and fanatical Wahhabi understanding of Islam, deeply changed the political and territorial character of the Arabian Peninsula. During the 1950s and 1960s, the Wahhabi kingdom was politically on the defensive. Arab nationalism and socialism were dynamic ideologies at that time; both called for the overthrow of the Saudi dynasty. Egypt’s defeat in the Six Day War against Israel in 1967 weakened these forces. Saudi Arabia began supporting conservative and Islamic organisations in the Arab region and in the neighbouring Middle East. Saudi Arabia’s precarious relations with its neighbours resurfaced in the autumn of 1990, when Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait and declared it an Iraqi province. King Hussein of Jordan and Yemen’s then-President Ali Abdullah Saleh supported the move of the Iraqi dictator. In response, Saudi Arabia expelled hundreds of thousands of Yemeni workers from its territory, exacerbating social tensions in Yemen. Saudi aid payments that had played in important part in balancing Jordan’s state budget were also cancelled. This policy culminated in the 1980s, when Saudi Arabia served as paymaster to the Islamist resistance to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan (December 1979 to February 1989). Saudi Arabia had been under pressure from terrorists since the mid-1990s, but it was al-Qaeda’s attack on the Twin Towers in New York on September 11, 2001 that made it plain that a very bad sort of genie had been let out of the bottle. The fact that 15 of the 19 terrorists of 9/11 were Saudi citizens led to Riyadh’s first major crisis in relations with the US. Until then, Washington had been the kingdom’s most powerful ally and protector. The ‘Arab Spring’ upheavals and protests in numerous Arab countries since 2011 have also had a profound impact on Saudi foreign policy. The kingdom needs to act more publicly now, rather than limiting itself to pulling strings from behind the scenes. Nor can the Saudi leadership hide behind the US on the world stage any longer. Thus far, Saudi Arabia has had difficulty living up to its claim of playing a leading role in overcoming the crises and conflicts of the Middle East. Its foreign policy in the surrounding Arab countries has had a mixed track record. In Yemen, Riyadh managed to engineer the departure of dictator Saleh in January 2012, but the country is far from politically stable now. Nor has the Saudi-led alliance that is launching air strikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen achieved impressive results. For decades, Saudi Arabia’s diplomacy revolved primarily around disseminating its conservative Wahhabi form of Islam and supporting pro-Saudi groupings within its geopolitical sphere. Riyadh will now have to move towards forging resilient political alliances, based on shared interests of the players concerned. For a more in-depth look at this subject with scenarios looking to future outcomes, go to our sister site: Geopolitical Information Service. Sign in for 3 Free Reports or Subscribe.

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